Asymmetrical interdependence and energy statecraft : Russia’s Usage of energy as a foreign policy tool towards Ukraine and Belarus

Abstract

Since the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), Russia started to lose its sphere of influence in the near abroad – including in Eastern Europe, where countries alike Ukraine and Belarus started to display closer relations with the EU-NATO alliance. To rebuild their sphere of influence, Russia deployed energy statecraft – the usage of energy as a foreign policy to exert power on parties dependent on the very resource. However, this became an anomaly since despite both Ukraine and Belarus’ dependency on crude oil and natural gas, Russia need these two countries as revenue-generating agents and transit states towards the larger European market. To answer this anomaly, this thesis uses the energy geopolitics analytical framework to examine the factors allowing the usage of energy statecraft, which includes the concept of asymmetrical interdependence. The thesis compares the case study of two Eastern European countries, namely Ukraine and Belarus, to qualitatively see the enabling factors of asymmetrical interdependence that enhances the usage of energy as a foreign policy tool. The analysis shows that the combination of primary resource concentration, state of international energy markets, accessibility of infrastructure, and condition of endusers had become a leverage for Russia to exercise influence on Belarus and Ukraine. The aforementioned were then manifested into four main policies: control of price, control of supply, planning of distribution routes, and infrastructure development plan; to allow positive and negative inducements to happen – creating a carrot-and-stick mechanism to ensure Ukraine and Belarus would succumb to Russia’s interest.