Abstract:
Since the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), Russia
started to lose its sphere of influence in the near abroad – including in Eastern
Europe, where countries alike Ukraine and Belarus started to display closer
relations with the EU-NATO alliance. To rebuild their sphere of influence, Russia
deployed energy statecraft – the usage of energy as a foreign policy to exert power
on parties dependent on the very resource. However, this became an anomaly since
despite both Ukraine and Belarus’ dependency on crude oil and natural gas, Russia
need these two countries as revenue-generating agents and transit states towards the
larger European market. To answer this anomaly, this thesis uses the energy
geopolitics analytical framework to examine the factors allowing the usage of
energy statecraft, which includes the concept of asymmetrical interdependence. The
thesis compares the case study of two Eastern European countries, namely Ukraine
and Belarus, to qualitatively see the enabling factors of asymmetrical
interdependence that enhances the usage of energy as a foreign policy tool. The
analysis shows that the combination of primary resource concentration, state of
international energy markets, accessibility of infrastructure, and condition of endusers had become a leverage for Russia to exercise influence on Belarus and
Ukraine. The aforementioned were then manifested into four main policies: control
of price, control of supply, planning of distribution routes, and infrastructure
development plan; to allow positive and negative inducements to happen – creating
a carrot-and-stick mechanism to ensure Ukraine and Belarus would succumb to
Russia’s interest.
