Bayesian Dengue Disease Mapping for Juvenile and Adult in Bandung, Indonesia

Abstract

Dengue is one of the most dangerous vector-borne infectious diseases in Bandung, Indonesia which can be fatal in many cases. Therefore, it absolutely needs to be treated as efficiently as possible. One factor which has to be considered in the dengue transmission model is the age factor. In this paper, the number of dengue cases in Bandung is classified into two groups which are juvenile and adult. Each group is analyzed by the Bayesian models which are Poisson-gamma, Besag, York and Mollie (BYM), and Mixture Models to estimate the relative risk. Those different type of models are implemented in this case to investigate whether there are specific conditions such as spatial or non-spatial which effect the dengue distribution in a specific area and in particular age group. The results of the analysis show that some areas in Bandung are in medium until very high risks to be infected by dengue disease, especially for juvenile group. Dividing the age group into juvenile and adult may help the authorities in preventing and controlling the disease before it occur and for medication purposes. This preliminary analysis can be applied to broader area, such as provinces, countries or continents.