Analysis of Voters Mapping on 2014 Presidential Election in Indonesia Based on Standardized Incidence Ratio Method

Abstract

Voters mapping of relative potential votes is useful in knowing the geographical distribution of provinces that have a high or low potential votes. It will be a useful reference for presidential candidates or supporting parties to identify their votes. They must keep provinces with high potential votes and increase voters in provinces with low potential votes. Voters mapping is usually based on member of voters without considering population size differences on each provinces but voters map based on raw data which is number of voters can be misleading. Therefore, the main aim of this research is to estimate relative potential votes for election based on Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) method. SIR is a direct estimation method in which standardization is based on population size. SIR is appropriate to be used in large population size such as provinces. The study is using data of voters at Indonesia presidential election in 2014. According to the election results, Sumatera Barat and Nusa Tenggara Barat are two provinces with relatively high potential votes to Prabowo-Hatta. However, Sumatera Barat is province with relatively very low potential votes to Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla. The greater total number of provinces with medium relatively potential votes and the lower total number of provinces with low relatively potential votes are two main factors that affect Jokowi's victory.