A Mathematical Model for Election Timing

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dc.contributor.author Lesmono, Julius Dharma
dc.date.accessioned 2017-10-11T06:44:42Z
dc.date.available 2017-10-11T06:44:42Z
dc.date.issued 2006
dc.identifier.issn 1693-5098
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/3460
dc.description JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS; Vol.2 No.1, June 2006
dc.description.abstract We consider a mathematical model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an election. This model is based on the two-party-preferred data (poll data) that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition in Australia over a long period of time. A term structured volatility model is proposed to describe the dynamic of those poll data. In addition to the constitutional right, it is assumed that the government can use some control tools termed as 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These ' boosts' lift the government's popularity and their effects upon the early-election exercise boundary are studied. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS;Vol.2 No.1, June 2006
dc.subject DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING en_US
dc.subject OPTIMAL STOPPING en_US
dc.subject ELECTION TIMING en_US
dc.title A Mathematical Model for Election Timing en_US
dc.type Journal Articles en_US


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