A Mathematical Model for Election Timing

Abstract

We consider a mathematical model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an election. This model is based on the two-party-preferred data (poll data) that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition in Australia over a long period of time. A term structured volatility model is proposed to describe the dynamic of those poll data. In addition to the constitutional right, it is assumed that the government can use some control tools termed as 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These ' boosts' lift the government's popularity and their effects upon the early-election exercise boundary are studied.