Motivations for escalation : the successes of Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch on Turkey’s armed conflict escalation by Peace Spring in Northern Syria

Abstract

Turkey’s goals in northern Syria and its incompatibility with the Kurdish armed forces had led to an armed conflict between them as Turkey conducted two military operations—Operation Euphrates Shield and Operation Olive Branch—into northern Syria in order to achieve its goals in confronting PKK-affiliated Syrian Kurdish groups and conducting territorial expansion for refugee relocation. These operations proved to be successful as they provided Turkey favourable outcomes that contributed to the process of achieving its goals. This was followed by another military operation, Operation Peace Spring, to attain more success after the successes of the previous military operation, providing implications of their influence towards conducting Operation Peace Spring. This brought forth the question on the influence of successes in Operation Euphrates Shield and Operation Olive Branch towards motivating Turkey’s conflict escalation with the Kurdish armed forces through Operation Peace Spring. Through a case study qualitative method of research guided by the theory of escalation by Forrest Morgan et al. as well as Otomar J. Bartos and Paul Wehr, particularly on the influence of positive outcomes in conflict towards the decision to escalation. This research finds that the favourable outcomes of Operation Euphrates Shield and Operation Olive Branch— specifically on increased resources in land, authority, and support—motivated Turkey to escalate its armed conflict with the Kurdish armed forces by conducting another military operation, Operation Peace Spring, as Turkey gained an advantage over the Kurds with possibilities to gain more.