Hostility vs. reluctance : the implication of nuclear posture adoption towards India’s bilateral relations with Pakistan and China

Abstract

With ongoing conflicts against two countries located directly to its borders, India developed nuclear weapons as a means to assure their survivability amidst the growing tension with Pakistan and China. However, India shows contradictory behaviour within its bilateral relations with both countries, whereas India has a highly hostile relations with Pakistan yet a rather cooperative relations with China. Ideally, accumulation of nuclear power will increase tension and lead to a more conflictual relationship. To answer this anomaly, this thesis will use the posture optimization theory to examine the factors that influence the state’s final posture adoption. This thesis will compare two cases of India’s nuclear conflicts with Pakistan and China to qualitatively see the implication of posture adoption to bilateral relationships. The analysis shows that India’s adoption of assured retaliation posture against Pakistan aims to deter directly with their nuclear capabilities, while adopting the catalytic posture to shift China’s focus to the U.S. as India’s patron. As a result, India's tendency to be defensive yet assertive towards Pakistan raises the hostility among both of them. On the contrary, the existence of the U.S. deters disproportionate offensives from China against India, enabling them to have a degree of trust to establish cooperation.