Abstract:
Recently, dengue as the most dangerous disease in the world, needs more attention to be
prevented in its transmission. One method that is usually used is through the statistics
approach to estimate the relative risks of dengue transmission. The dengue cases of all
severity levels spread rapidly in every district in Bandung, Indonesia every month.
Therefore, the early-stage known as Dengue Fever (DF), the severe-stage manifested as
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) and Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS) and both stages
combined, would be taken into account and investigated in this research. The non-spatial
Poisson-gamma model and spatial Besag, York, and Mollie (BYM) model are applied to
estimate the relative risks in each district in Bandung every month. This research will use the
data in year 2013 from St. Borromeus hospital as one of the reputable hospitals in Bandung.
From the results obtained, it can be concluded that the implementation of non-spatial
Poisson-gamma and spatial BYM models does not depict a significantly different result in
estimating the relative risks of dengue transmission in Bandung. From the Deviance
Information Criterion (DIC) diagnostic, it is derived that non-spatial model is better than the
spatial model. Therefore, it can be concluded that there is no spatial effect in dengue
transmission in Bandung, means that the transmission of dengue disease in Bandung is not
affected by neighboring areas. This analysis is also applicable to every stage estimated,
both for the early-stage as well as the severe-stage.
